Sunny skies ahead. While the burgeoning solar cell industry
may face a growth slowdown in the short term due to silicon material
shortages, we expect an across-the-board surge in solar cell-related
earnings from about 2008. If technology enables continued cost
cuts, the potential market scale should expand accordingly.

Solar cell demand should treble by 2010, still ample room for growth
We expect global solar cell installation to reach about 4 GW in 2010, up from 1.5 GW in
2005. Expansion of solar cell use should continue owing to the spread of electric power
purchasing systems in Europe and efforts to expand use in the US and Asia. Shortages of
silicon materials are likely to continue until 2007, but supply should meet demand thereafter.
2008 to bring end to materials shortage, surge in solar cell maker earnings
The solar cell-related value chain should benefit from overall market expansion over the
medium/long term, but profit distribution is likely to vary in different phases of development.
Short-term attention should focus on silicon materials firms and solar cell makers that can
maintain margins. The peaking-out of silicon prices should prompt surges in solar cell
makers’ earnings and demand for production equipment.