Age Structure of the Workforce in Growing and Declining Industries-Evidence from Hong Kong 部分内容如下： Declining Industries: Evidence from Hong Kong June 7, 2007 Abstract. Industry-specic human capital reduces the incentive for older wo...

工业驱动型经济发展基于江苏省数据的实证研究 部分内容如下： 工业驱动型经济发展 基于江苏省数据的实证研究 中文摘要：本文运用江苏省1952~2005年的时间序列数据，采用向量自回归、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰检因果验对经济部门增长之间的关系进行研究，发现...

中国通胀持久性问题研究 部分内容如下： 中国通胀持久性问题研究 研究领域：数里经济与计量经济学 摘要：中国通货膨胀已经持续10年保持在相对较低的水平，这是否暗示着通胀持久性已经发生结构性变化，从而使得中国的低通胀环境能长期保持下去？本文使用具有...

中国区域经济增长协整分析与区域政策选择 摘要：文章运用协整分析方法，对我国东部、中部、西部三个地区经济增长之间的相 互关系进行了探讨，协整分析和葛兰杰因果关系检验的结果是西部经济增长与中部、东部 经济增长均有协整关系，但中部与东部经济增长之间...

中国月度数据指南最新的数据表现、经济含义以及我们对前景的预测: 概览与摘要 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 瑞银经济活动指标 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 经济景气指标 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 通货膨胀 . . . . . . . . . . . . ....

The issue of normalization arises whenever two different values for a vector of unknown parameters imply the identical economic model. A normalization does not just imply a rule for selecting which point, among equivalent ones, to call the...

Abstract This paper develops a series of specification tests of Markov-switching time-series models. Tests for omitted cytocorrelation, omitted ARCH, misspecificationg of the Markovian dynamics, and omitted explanatory variables are propos...

Comment on A comparison of two business cycle dating methods James D. Hamilton Department of Economics 0508, University of California, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508, USA...

Abstract This paper revisits the yield spreads usefulness for predicting future real GDP growth. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the...

Abstract This paper is statistical analysis of the manner in which the Federal Reserve determines the level of Federal funds rate target, one of the most publicized and anticipated economics indicators in the financial world. The analysis...