“工业驱动型”经济发展——基于江苏省数据的实证研究

部分内容如下：

“工业驱动型”经济发展 ——基于江苏省数据的实证研究 中文摘要：本文运用江苏省1952~2005年的时间序列数据，采用向量自回归、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰检因果验对经济部门增长之间的关系进行研究，发现：（1）工业部门对农业和其他部门的增长有重要的促进作用；（2）其他部门却不能够解释工业部门的增长，工业部门依赖于自身增长或者外生力量。结果无论在长期还是短期，以及在部门分解数据基础上都是稳健的。所以文章认为存在一种“工业驱动型”的经济发展阶段，这一阶段的存在对于经济发展理论以及发展中国家的经济现实具有重要的意义。 关键词：工业驱动 主导部门 向量自回归 格兰杰检验

Economic Development Droved by Industry: An Empirical Research on the Data of Jiangsu Abstract: VAR, VEC and Granger Causality models are constructed to study the sectoral relationship in Jiangsu throughout the data period 1952~2005. We find that industry is the growth engine, the growth of all the other sectors was found to be caused by industry significantly. But the growth of all the other sectors had little effect on industry. These results are robust in both the long-run and the short-run models, so are in the sub-section data. The existence of a period in which economic development is droved by industry would have important effect on economic development theory and the developing economies. Key Words: VEC; VAR; Granger Causality;