中国通胀持久性问题研究 部分内容如下：
中国通胀持久性问题研究
研究领域：数里经济与计量经济学
摘要：中国通货膨胀已经持续10年保持在相对较低的水平，这是否暗示着通胀持久性已经发生结构性变化，从而使得中国的低通胀环境能长期保持下去？本文使用具有统计无偏性质的“格点拔靴”（grid bootstrap）估计法和未知断点检验法对1981-2007年期间中国的通胀持久性问题进行了严谨、深入的分析。实证结果显示，消费者价格指数通胀率变量的持久性在九十年代末发生了显著减弱，而零售商品价格指数通胀率的持久性系数没有发生显著变化。本文讨论了实证结果与我国宏观经济发展及政策变迁之间的内在联系。
关键词：通货膨胀通胀持久性拔靴法结构变化
MIodeling China Inflation Persistence
Abstract
Inflation in China has been remarkably low for nearly one decade. But has the persistence
of inflation changed in a way that would help entrench the low inflation permanently? This
article investigates this important question by modeling structural changes in inflation
persistence based on both consumer price index and retail price index for China over the
period 1981-2007. The empirical results suggest that the persistence of the consumer price
inflation has witnessed a statistically significant reduction since the end of the 1990s while the
persistence of the retail price inflation appears to remain high and unchanged during the same
period. Implications of the empirical results and connections of the findings with macro and
monetary policy changes in China are discussed.
JEL Classification: E31
Keywords: inflation, inflation persistence, bootstrap, structural change |