| 瑞银：中国房地产展望 Chinese property sector continues to offer value We believe that bonds of Chinese property developers continue to offer good value compared to the Chinese industrial sector. Despite the government’s austerity measures to cool down the property market, year-to-date contracted sales remained resilient, driven by healthy volume growth and marginally higher ASP. Headline risks will persist for the sector, as the government adopts a fine-tuning approach to reign on prices, but we think the on-going transaction volume will help generate decent cash flow for developers. Together with less aggressive land acquisitions, and the fact that many of them just came to issue in the market and are sitting on cash, default risk on a rolling 12-month basis should be low. (We have stress tested contract sales levels for the developers.) We believe investors will be more than compensated for the risks. We expect the yield differential between Chinese property sector and Chinese non-property sector to narrow, if not reverse. |