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瑞银: 60页 中国房地产市场 20110531

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介绍
瑞银:中国房地产展望
Chinese property sector continues to offer value
We believe that bonds of Chinese property developers continue to offer good value
compared to the Chinese industrial sector. Despite the government’s austerity
measures to cool down the property market, year-to-date contracted sales remained
resilient, driven by healthy volume growth and marginally higher ASP. Headline
risks will persist for the sector, as the government adopts a fine-tuning approach to
reign on prices, but we think the on-going transaction volume will help generate
decent cash flow for developers. Together with less aggressive land acquisitions,
and the fact that many of them just came to issue in the market and are sitting on
cash, default risk on a rolling 12-month basis should be low. (We have stress tested
contract sales levels for the developers.) We believe investors will be more than
compensated for the risks. We expect the yield differential between Chinese
property sector and Chinese non-property sector to narrow, if not reverse.
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