Table Of Contents
Range Of Returns In Two High-Potential Markets....................................... 3
Estimating Market Potential In Each State .................................................. 4
Solar Potential Is Combination Of Sunshine And Power Price............................. 5
How We Calculate Returns................................................................................ 5
Federal ITC Uncapped Through 2016 ............................................................... 6
Early Adopters: Demographics, Monetizing Tax Credits.................................... 6
We See A 7GW Early Adopter Market................................................................. 7
L-T PV Penetration May Resemble Central Air Conditioning............................... 8
Assumptions For Electricity Prices .................................................................. 10
Natural Gas Prices Muted By Increased Supply ................................................ 10
Climate Change Legislation Could Aid PV Adoption........................................ 10
Some Incremental Potential Users, Even In Alaska........................................... 11
How Much Can Rooftop PV Contribute To The Power Mix?.............................. 12
Cash, Home Equity And Mortgage Scenarios................................................... 13
Other System Financing Options .................................................................... 13
System Price Ranges In The Top Eleven States......................................... 14
Other Financial Incentives For PV.................................................................... 15
Potential Limits Of Our Model ........................................................................ 15
California ................................................................................................ 16
Hawaii..................................................................................................... 20
Texas...................................................................................................... 22
Colorado................................................................................................. 25
Nevada.................................................................................................... 27
New York ................................................................................................ 29
New Jersey .............................................................................................. 31
Delaware................................................................................................. 33
Rhode Island ........................................................................................... 35
Connecticut ............................................................................................ 37
New Hampshire....................................................................................... 39