In the doldrums?
Where is the growth in Asia?
Asia’s energy equities seem to have run out of steam. Our BUY on
Sinopec in 1H09 was followed by the stock nearly doubling which is when
we switched to sellers. The company’s refining margins have since
become negative. PetroChina seems to be fair value at these levels, and
natural gas policy could boost the stock. Also, CNOOC’s post 2010 growth
remains questionable. In the industry, PTTEP and CNOOC have the
brightest prospects. As such, we are buyers during dips and doldrums, but
appreciation of these stocks may not show until 2010.
Concerns over COSL
What’s shocking is that not one of our peers mentioned articles 12 and 13
in 1H09 results, which cover outstanding litigation on semi subs bought
from Awilco, and the cancellation of the drilling contract with BP. Both will
require some pay out to settle the issues. We’re expecting a second write
down in 4Q09, a placement in 1H10, and cash payouts to settle the above
mentioned litigation in 2H10. A bumpy road lies ahead.
Natural Gas pricing to boost PetroChina?
China’s commitment to raising natural gas prices is clear, and both LNG
import commitments and current retail prices in Southern China display
this. The recent pricing assigned to Sinopec’s Puguang gas, however,
seemed to be a well-head + pipeline tariff formula, implying a cost-plus
system. Other indications show that the pricing will be more market based.
We will have more information on this after our November site visit to the
Kazak border to meet with Central Asian gas specialists.
Growth and valuations
The big three are not, thus far, achieving growth through acquisitions;
although we believe they may be able to obtain some technological
expertise in future deals, but not likely large producing assets. Under the
assumption there is growth, E&P names in Asia are inexpensive. The
questions now are: Will macro factors enable oil to stay at – or overrun –
~USD70/b in the near term? And will we see a return to the aggressive
(and successful) exploration spend that occurred over the past few years?