Contents
Key recommendations 4
Valuation table 5
Our view – Short-term pain, long-term gain 6
Recent newsflow 8
Mixed messages 8
First signs of Chinese stimulus success? 8
Europe and US remain weak 9
SRB buying buoys base metals 9
Non-exchange commodities not performing as well 10
Key themes from company specific newsflow 11
Key issues – Commodities 12
Near-term risk weighted to the downside 12
Longer-term picture is much more positive 13
Key issues – Companies 15
Balancing act 15
Which sub-sectors? 15
Which companies? 15
Valuations look stretched 15
Key issues – Recent performance 21
Valuations 23
Diversifieds 23
Gold 23
Platinum 23
Other 24
Catalysts 26
General 26
Bulks 27
Gold 27
Platinum 28
New commodity price forecasts 30
Aluminium 31
Coking Coal 32
Copper 33
Ferrochrome 35
Gold 36
Iron ore 38
Nickel 39
Platinum 40
Silver 42
Thermal Coal 44
Zinc 45
Diversified Mining Companies 47
Anglo American 48
Antofagasta 50
BHP Billiton 52
Rio Tinto 54
Gold Mining Companies 57
Gold companies key issues 58
Valuations 63
Scenario Analysis 66
Catalysts 68
Avocet Mining 70
Central Randgold Resources 72
European Goldfields 74
Fresnillo 76
Hghland Gold 78
Hochschild 80
Peter Hambro 82
Randgold Resources 84
Uruguay 86
Platinum Mining Companies 89
Aquarius 90
Braemore 92
Eastplats 94
Lonmin 96
Sylvania 98
Other Mining Companies 101
International Ferro Metals 102
Griffin Mining*† 104
Petra Diamond 106