【摘要】 本文通过一个简单的理论模型和四象限图形分析了房地产价格影响物价与产出的机制，理论分析的结论是：房价通过影响总需求进而对物价水平产生向上的压力，其中，房价波动对储蓄的边际影响起十分重要的作用。在此基础上，综合运用相关性分析、协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系，实证检验的结论是：短期内，房地产价格波动对通货膨胀与产出的影响十分有限；长期来看，房地产价格对通货膨胀与产出产生重要的影响，并且，在房价与物价、产出之间存在正反馈作用机制。这意味着在一个平稳的宏观经济环境中，这种正反馈作用可能会引发经济过热和房价泡沫。

关键词 房地产价格；通货膨胀；产出；货币政策目标；正反馈机制

 

 

Impact of China Real Estate Price on Inflation and Output: Theory and Empirical Research

 

 

Abstract：With a simple theory model and a four quadrants diagram，this thesis analyses the mechanism which house prices affecting price and output，the conclusion of theory analysis is：house prices exert ascending pressure to price through aggregate demand，and the marginal impact of house price bring to saving is very important。Based on the theory analysis，the author tests the relationship among house prices 、price and output with methods such as correlation analysis、Co-integrate Test、Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition。The conclusion of Empirical test is that the effects house prices bring to price and output is very limited in short term；in the long term，house prices affect price and output significantly，and there exist positive feedback mechanism among house prices 、inflation and output。This means that such positive feedback mechanism will bring about economic overheating and house price bubbles in a stable macro-economy environment。

Key words：Real estate price；Inflation；Output；Monetary policy target；Positive feedback mechanism