中国地区周期的协同性：1952-2005

内容提要：本文考察了1952~2005年中国省区实际产出的周期变化和协同性特征。我们发现，省区周期的波幅不断收窄并且越来越平滑，周期同步性的动态变化呈U型特征。本文随后的回归估计表明，两个省区距离越小、总体经济规模越大，其周期协同性越高；相反，省区之间的国有经济比重和经济结构的差距越大，周期协同的可能性就越小。本文分时段的研究还发现，东部的周期波动在1992~2005年期间显示出较强的区域化特征。

关键词：经济周期 协同性 一体化

Abstract: We investigate the dynamics and synchronization of real output cycles in China’s provinces between 1952 and 2005. We find that, the extent for the cycle volatility has been narrowing and smoothing, and the synchronization show itself a U-type dynamics. Our following regressions reveal that, the nearer or (and) larger of two provinces being considered, the higher of their cycles’ synchronization. For two provinces with large gap in their SOE ratio and economic structure, the chances for cycle synchronization are slim. Our sub-period regressions also find that, the east show obvious localization in its cycle between 1992 and 2005。

Key Words: Business Cycle, Synchronization, Integration

JEL Classification: E32, R12, F15