——基于中国地区数据的实证分析

 

内容提要：本文基于中国东、中、西部六省（市）1994年到2004年的面板数据对银行结构与经济发展的因果关系做了实证研究。采用了两种检验方法来验证二者之间的因果关系，一是标准的格兰杰因果检验方法；另一种是从对银行结构冲击的内外因素角度来验证格兰杰因果检验结果的方向性及一致性。研究结果显示，在短期内是经济发展影响银行结构，而长期则是银行结构影响到经济发展。因此在经济发展的初期受实体经济发展规模的限制，需要分散的银行结构，而随着经济的发展，特别是到了发达阶段，集中型的银行结构能更好地促进经济的发展。

关键词：银行结构；经济发展；因果关系；

 

 

 

 

The causal relationships between banking structure and economic growth: empirical study on regional panel data in China

 

Abstract:This paper does an empirical study about the causal relationships between bank structure and economic growth based on panel data of six provinces in east, middle and west China from 1994 to 2004. The causality between them are tested by two methods: the first one is a standard Granger-Sim causality test, the second one studies the direction and consistency of the Granger-Sim’s result by taking into account the impact of changes in bank’s internal and external factors on their market shares. The results show that in the short-run the banking structure is predominantly caused by economic growth, while in the long-run a reverse causation direction emerges. So a dispersive banking structure is needed in the early stage of economic development, while in the long time or in the mature stage of economic development a concentrated banking structure is favored.

Keywords:Banking structure; Economic growth; Causality