内容提要：本文基于既有的经济学文献分析认为，经过修正的财政主导型制度和FTPL制度可以分别对1981-1994和1995-2006两个时期的通货膨胀史进行解释。除理论框架外，本文还给出了检验该框架的最优检验策略，并且预言货币主导型的李嘉图制度将很可能成为中国第二次制度变革的方向。

关键词：财政主导型制度 价格水平决定的财政理论 自主性货币政策   第二次制度变革

 

A feasible framework to explain inflationary history in China:1981-2006

 

Abstract: Based on current literature’s analysis, this paper thinks that revised fiscal dominant regime and FTPL regime can explain inflationary history during 1981-1994 and 1995-2006 period respectively. Besides, it also gives optimal testable strategy and predicts that it is very possible for monetary dominant Ricardian regime to be direction of second institutional reform in China.

Keywords:Fiscal dominant regime，Fiscal theory of price level ，Autonomous monetary policy，The second institutional reform