——理论模型及初步实证

张孝岩[1]

（安阳师范学院经济贸易系   河南安阳 455000）

 

摘 要：近年来我国农村公共品供给不足问题越来越突出，成为农村经济发展的严重制约，受到国内学术界的广泛关注。把公共投资划分为资本密集型和劳动密集型，模型改进得出的结论为农村公共投资投向的公共物品拥挤性不同，对农村居民消费和农村经济产生的影响会大不相同，因此政府应该积极权衡并采取对应的措施。其后，利用湖北省1985-2003年的时间序列数据，首先用检验了数据的平稳性，在此基础上进行了因果关系检验，研究发现政府公共投资可以成为农村经济增长的Granger原因，反过来却不成立，说明增加公共投资能够显著促进农村经济增长，而当前农村公共投资的薄弱则启示政府应继续加大对三农的投资和支持力度。农村经济增长的公共投资因素分析显示，医疗卫生投资、教育投资对农村生产总值的弹性最高，而传统上认为高效的基础设施则作用并不明显。

关键词：公共投资；农村经济增长；模型；公共品

中图分类号：F812.8           文献标识码：A  

 

 

Public Investment and Rural Economic Growth

-----Model and its Empirical Analysis

ZHANG Xiao-yan

(Department of Economy and Trade, Anyang Normal University, Henan Anyang, 455000)

Abstract: In recent years the problem of inadequate supply of China's rural public goods are becoming more and more prominent. By dividing public investment into capital-intensive and labor-intensive, our modified model suggest that different public investment have different impact on the rural residents’ consumption and rural economy depends on the congestion of rural public goods, so the government should take corresponding countermeasures. This article uses the Hubei’s series data between 1985-2003, examines the data’s stability, carries on the causal relation test in this foundation, the research has discovered that public investment might be the Granger cause, while in turn the conclusion could not be established. The conclusion is that rural public investment profoundly increase rural economy, while low rural public investment level suggest that the government should take some countermeasures to enhance the rural investment.

Key Words: public investment; rural economic growth; model; public goods

 

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