结构变化与经济增长：1978－2004

                  ——基于中国Panel－Data的实证分析

 

内容提要：现有结构变化与经济增长的相关研究主要是基于私有制市场经济国家，定义良好的市场以及运行稳健的价格机制和供求规律是其共同基础。本文基于Panel－Data的实证分析，发现其研究结论对于有中国特色社会主义市场经济依然有效；但差异也是明显的，即普遍存在的农业相对劳动生产率倒“U”型曲线在中国并不成立。这说明中国结构变化滞后于经济增长。经过近30年的“增长奇迹”，中国经济发展的重点是该转移到避免各种形式的结构性失衡，尤其是产业结构的失衡和调整的滞后，以及促进增长利益的广泛分配上。

关键词：结构变化 经济增长 相对劳动生产率

 

Abstract: The present studies on the relationship between structural change and economic growth are based on the private-owned property and market-oriented economy, where there is a well-functioning market, price mechanism and nice demand-supply laws. On the quantitative analysis, this paper demonstrates that the above relationship is effectual in China, while the difference is obvious, for the widely-used backward “U” curve of comparative labor productivity in agriculture does not exist in China. And this tells us that structural change lags behind economic growth. After the thirty-year “growth miracle”, it is time for China to transfer the center of economic growth from development to against the structural unbalance, especially against the unbalance among industries and its corresponding adjustment lags, and to promote more equitable distribution of the gains from economic growth.

Key words: structural change, economic growth, comparative labor productivity