金融发展与经济增长关系的面板数据协整研究：亚洲的经验

 

【摘要】 金融发展是否促进经济增长这一问题关系到金融改革政策的制定如何更好地推动经济增长。本文使用“二分法”思路构建的理论模型，运用面板数据单位根和协整理论对1978-2004年间亚洲14个国家和地区的金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了研究，实证结果证实了亚洲14个国家和地区的金融发展与经济增长之间存在显著的协整关系，金融发展对经济增长的总贡献介于7.13%-8.71%之间，其系数为正，且在统计意义上是显著的(5%显著性水平)，这一结论支持亚洲金融发展对经济增长有积极的影响以及金融发展和经济增长这二者之间存在正相关关系的观点。

关键词：金融发展 经济增长 面板数据 协整分析 非平稳面板时间序列

Nonstationary Panel Data Cointegration Estimation between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asia

 

Abstract: The issue whether financial development promotes economic growth is terribly important for how to make a possible finance reform policy to promote economics growth. Based on the framework of alternative econometric approaches, and employing panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and estimation of panel cointegration models, this paper evaluated the relationship between financial development and economic development with annual data for 14 Asian countries and regions during 1978 to 2004. Our findings are as follows: (a) there are cointegration relationships between financial development and economic development; (b) financial intermediation promotes economic growth in about 7.13%-8.71% of the 14 Asian countries and regions. The estimating results of this study do support the view the financial development promotes economic growth.

Key Words: Financial Development, Economic Growth, Panel Cointegration, Panel Unit Roots, Nonstational Panel Data

JEL classifications: C22, C23, E44