地区间就业增长的长期与短期效应的实证分析

吴利华，周勤

东南大学经济管理学院，江苏南京，210096

内容提要：近十年来中国地区的就业增长是由什么因素决定的？在一个经济周期中产业和地区差异对地区就业水平的影响程度如何？本文用我国29个地区1996年到2004年11个产业就业增长面板数据，基于方差分析模型，从产业和地区层面上分析区域就业增长差异的原因。研究结果表明：地区间长期就业增长差异的56.6%可以被产业效应解释，43.4%被地区与产业的交互作用效应解释；地区间短期就业增长差异50.1%可以被产业效应解释，23.5%可以被地区效应解释，26.4%可以被周期效应解释。所以，地区间产业因素是影响地区就业增长变化的主要因素，而地区因素和宏观周期波动对就业变化影响较小。

关键词：就业演变 产业效应 地区效应 经济周期

Abstract: Over the recent decade, what determines the employment increasing of each region in China? During an economic cycle, to what degree do industrial diversity as well as regional difference affect the employment level of each area? This paper based on the variance-components analysis (VCA) model, uses panel data of employments of 11 industries in 29 regions of China from 1996 to 2004 in order to analyze the causes of differences in development between regions, industries and employments in terms of industries and areas. Results here indicate that long-term variations of employment between regions are explained by industrial effects for about 56.6%, and the rest 43.4% are explained by interact effects of regions and industries. While industrial effects account for 50.1% of the short-run variations of employment, also, regional effects and business cycle effects respectively account for 23.5% and 26.4%. Therefore, industrial effect is the main influencing factor of interlocal employment variations while regional diversity and macro-periodic fluctuations have less influence.

Key words: employment evolving; industrial effects; regional effects; business cycles