出口贸易结构的形成机理：中国1980－2005的实证研究

隋月红1 赵振华2

（1，中国计量学院经管学院 310018；2，浙江金融职业学院 310018）

 

摘要：近年来国内学者对中国外贸的研究开始将注意力从贸易量转到贸易结构，但大多数研究只是停留在贸易结构的存在上，而忽视了贸易结构的形成。本文运用格兰杰因果检验和回归分析等实证分析了出口贸易结构的形成机理。本文的主要发现是：外国直接投资流入、贸易开放程度、产业结构均对我国出口贸易结构形成有正作用；研发与创新投入增加集中表现在资本密集型产品出口比重的增加；汇率变动影响我国出口贸易结构变动；我国出口贸易结构易造成对外贸易摩擦，但未进行相应的调整；我国对外直接投资对我国出口贸易结构仍不能产生作用。

关键词：出口贸易结构 格兰杰因果检验 回归分析

Forming Mechanism of Export Trade Structure: an Empirical Study in China from 1980 to 2005

Sui Yuehong  Zhao Zhenhua

(China JiLiang University, Zhe jiang Financial Professional College)

Abstract: National scholars begin to direct their attention from trade volume to trade structure, they are just concerned about the existence of trade structure, but they ignore an essential issue—what is forming mechanism of the trade structure? So, this paper uses Granger Causality Test and OLS to analysis forming mechanism of export trade structure in China. We find the FDI flowing in, opening degree of trade, industry structure are positive to enlarge the proportion of manufactured goods in export trade; strong increase in R&D leads to intensity on capital-intensive goods exportation; exchange rate can influence export trade structure; although export trade structure is easy to cause foreign trade friction, which can not work on the adjustment of export trade structure; and FDI flowing out can not be in the impact of export trade structure.

Key Words: Export Trade Structure; Granger Causality Test; OLS