杨建辉,潘　虹
(华南理工大学工商管理学院,广州510640)
摘要: 　近期,国际原油价格在飙升到高位后出现回落趋势,人民币升值6 个百分点后持续走俏. 为了研
究这两个经济变量对我国宏观经济造成的影响,本文以协整理论和支持向量机理论为基础,利用单整检
验、误差修正模型以及支持向量回归机等方法,讨论了中国宏观经济、国际原油价格以及人民币实际汇
率两两之间以及三者之间的关系. 研究结果表明国际原油价格和人民币实际汇率:1) 对GDP 和社会消费
品零售总额的直接影响不显著,但是却从成本上间接抑制GDP 增长;2) 我国固定资产投资出现增长过快
的现象;3) 对进出口贸易,特别是出口贸易阻滞严重,其中以交通运输业和以石油作为原材料的制造业
最为明显. 最后针对以上三个结论,进行了深入分析,并提出几点意见和建议.
关键词: 　国际原油价格;人民币实际汇率;宏观经济指标;协整理论;支持向量机(SVM) 回归理论
中图分类号: 　F22410 ;F81212 　　　　　　　　文献标志码: 　A 　　　
Study on world oil price and real exchange rate with
China’s macro2economics
YANGJian2hui , PAN Hong
(School of Business Administration , South China University of Technology ,Guangzhou 510640 ,China)
Abstract : 　Recently , World Oil Prices is falling slightly from the highest period which has been maintaining for a
long time ; Meanwhile , RMB still appreciates slowly although the exchange rate has been declined by 6 %. In order to
detect the heavy influences on China’s macro2economics , we discuss the relationships among World Oil Prices , RMB
real exchange rate and macro2economics indexes. Based on the Co2integration Theory and Support Vector Machine
Theory , we impose unit root test , vector error correction model and SVMfor regression , and conclude that under these
circumstance : 1) Both GDP and Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods are scarcely influenced directly. However , the
indirect effects acted on the increasing cost of manufacturing industry are highly obvious as a side2effect ; 2) Investment
in Fixed Asset in China has been mounting up with an unreasonable high speed ; 3) Foreign Trades , especially export
trades are seriously hindered , which include traffic and transportation industries and other fields which depend on
petroleum as their raw materials and power sources. For these three conclusions , we carry out more analyzes and table
an improved advice and proposal.
Key words : 　world oil prices ; RMB real exchange rate ; macro2economics indexes ; co2integration theory ; support
vector machine regression theory