FDI流入的内生性出口贸易增长效应的实证研究*

——基于中国30个省市1990～2005年的面板数据模型检验

周靖祥

（重庆大学贸易及行政学院重庆，400030）

摘要：本文首先描述1990～2005年我国30个省市的出口贸易与FDI流入的差异,根据二者的发展特点，并将16年时间划分为三个阶段：1990～1997年、1998～2001年和2002～2005年。接着，建立FDI对出口贸易增长影响的理论分析框架，将内生增长理论引入模型分析，并建立外商直接投资流入的影响因素模型。得出结论：我国省区FDI与出口之间存在正相关关系，FDI流入形成内生增长效应，检验“FDI的出口贸易促进论”，出口贸易对FDI流入起“示范”效应。最后提出缩小FDI与出口贸易地区差距的政策建议，重点发展国内企业，根据地区宏观经济发展需要对FDI流入进行适当“限制”和“扩张”。

关键词：FDI；出口贸易；内生增长模型

 

An Empirical Study on the Endogenous Growth Effect of China’s FDI-inflow

-----Test on the Panel Data Model for 30 provinces and cities during 1990-2005

ZHOU Jing-xiang

(Chongqing University Trade and Administration College, Chongqing, 400030)

Abstract:The paper firstly describes the difference for 30 provinces and cities of our country between export trades and the FDI inflow in the year 1990～2005 year, according to the two development characteristic, and 16 year time divisions is three stages: the year 1990～1997, 1998～2001 and 2002～2005. And then establishes FDI to the export trade growth influence theoretical analysis frame, let the growth theory introduction model into analysis, and establish the foreign direct investment inflow the influence factor model. Draws the conclusion: Between in our country provincial capital area FDI and the exportation has the correlation dependence, the FDI inflow forms lives the growth effect, the examination “the FDI export trade promotion theory”, the export trade flows in “the demonstration” effect to the FDI. Finally proposed reduces FDI and the export trade area disparity policy suggested, prioritize domestic enterprise, and needs to carry on suitable “the limit” and “the expansion” to the FDI inflow according to the local macroscopic economy development.

Key Words: FDI Export Trade Endogenous Growth Model

---