Contents

I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................1
II ALLOWANCE-BASED MARKETS .......................................................................................................5
2.1 EU ETS .....................................................................................................................................5
2.1.1 Carbon Hit by Recession ...............................................................................................................6
2.1.2 What to Expect for the Remainder of Phase II? ............................................................................8
2.1.3 20-20-20 by 2020: the Climate and Energy Package is Adopted ..................................................8
EU ETS Phase III ..........................................................................................................................9
Auctioning: At least 50% of EUAs to be Auctioned by 2013 .......................................................10
Price Control Mechanisms ..........................................................................................................14
2.2 THE U.S. IS BACK AT THE TABLE .................................................................................................14
2.2.1 Energy, Climate…and Trade/Competitiveness............................................................................16
2.2.2 Title III: Reducing Global Warming Pollution............................................................................17
The Lost Eight Years: Long-term Emission Reductions Trajectory.............................................17
Flexibility ...................................................................................................................................19
Other Provisions Outside of Cap-and-Trade...............................................................................21
Political Economy of U.S. Energy and Climate Change Package...............................................21
2.3 ALLOWANCES MARKETS IN AUSTRALASIA: LIKELY DELAYS.......................................................23
2.3.1 Japan: Trial ETS Starts; 2020 Target(s) Under Discussion........................................................23
2.3.2 Australia: Slower Start and Stronger Finish? .............................................................................24
2.3.3 New Zealand: Options under Review ..........................................................................................27
2.4 MARKET PERSPECTIVES ...............................................................................................................28
III PROJECT-BASED MARKETS.............................................................................................................31
3.1 LOSING MOMENTUM? ..................................................................................................................31
3.2 EUROPEAN PRIVATE SECTOR DOMINATES AS BUYER ..................................................................33
3.3 CHINA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AS A SELLER...........................................................................34
3.4 SECONDARY MARKET: COMPLIANCE, PROFIT-TAKING AND RISK MANAGEMENT........................38
3.5 PROJECT TYPES ............................................................................................................................40
3.6 INSIGHTS ON MARKET PRICES AND CONTRACT PROVISIONS........................................................44
3.7 CONTRIBUTION OF THE CDM SO FAR AND WAYS TO IMPROVE IT ................................................45
IV OUTLOOK..............................................................................................................................................53
4.1 DEMAND SUPPLY BALANCE IN RECESSIONARY TIMES.................................................................53
4.1.1 Likely Demand for Kyoto Mechanisms (KMs) from Governments ..............................................53
4.1.2 Private Sector Compliance Demand............................................................................................54
4.1.3 Pulling the Demand Picture Together .........................................................................................55
4.1.4 Likely Supply Side Position .........................................................................................................57
4.1.5 Any Residual Demand Left? ........................................................................................................58
4.2 COMPLEXITY AND THE NEED FOR CLARITY .................................................................................60
ANNEX I: COMPARISON OF MAJOR PROVISIONS OF ETS.................................................................63
ANNEX II: METHODOLOGY........................................................................................................................67
ANNEX III: GLOSSARY.................................................................................................................................69