Two weeks ago, we highlighted that we were becoming less bearish but
were waiting for clearer capitulation. We did not quite get capitulation on
the scale that we had envisaged (the aggregate indicator did not quite
reach 21 January and 17 March lows) but three of the sub indicators did
get there over the past week:
 1) Markets were exceptionally oversold (less than 20% of stocks were
above their 10-week MA for 10 consecutive days – the only time this
happened before was July 02 and May 04, which then saw an average
gain of 12% over the next month). 2) Equity sentiment was as
depressed last week as it was at the lows in Q1. 3) Insider (i.e.
management) buying rose to levels consistent with a temporary low,
with corporate net buying (data just out) now back up to normal levels.
  On top of this, we have the catalyst of a falling oil price (with each 10%
off the oil price adding 0.2% to GDP and reducing inflation by 0.3% at a
time when central banks are focused on inflation!).