高盛：中国风电设备行业研究报告2008年9月
中国：能源：替代能源
对风电企业的首次评级：买入金风, 对中国传动和华仪的评级为中性(摘要)
我们认为政策支持是中国风电需求的主要推动力
我们首次将中国风力发电行业纳入研究范围，并给予其中性评级。我们看好中国
的风电需求并认为政府和BTM Consult ApS 对2007-2010 年的需求年均复合增长
率预测（分别为18%和34%）存在上行空间。我们认为中国的新能源政策和风力
发电经济效益的改善是两个主要的需求推动力。在我们看来，由于中国保护性的
监管体制应会大大缓解来自于拥有更先进技术和更佳经营记录的外国同行企业的
竞争压力，中国企业应会成为旺盛的国内需求的受益者。
...但我们预计紧张的供应将会限制短期内的增长空间
我们预计，紧张的零部件供应将限制国内企业短期内的增长空间，同时我们认为
与外国同行企业在经营可靠性和技术方面的差距将会掣肘国内企业的中长期发
展。
我们看好拥有良好经营记录的企业
我们认为，在中国拥有稳定供应链和良好经营记录的专业化企业具有更大优势。
在我们看来，垂直整合的商业模式对于尚处于起步阶段的中国风力涡轮发电机
(WTG)制造商仍是一个重大挑战。我们认为，在获得资本和技术专长、提升运营
协同效应和效率方面所遇到的障碍在短期内将是难以逾越的。
买入金风科技；对中国传动和华仪电气的评级为中性
我们认为金风科技(002202.SZ，买入) 的风险回报最具吸引力。与零部件供应商
的长期关系以及良好的经营记录应会带动公司盈利的强劲增长。我们认为中国传
动(0658.HK，中性) 在行业中的主导地位与行业较高的准入门槛应会支撑公司的
收入增长并避免其利润率下滑，但该股的市盈率估值溢价可能会限制其短期内的
股价表现。华仪电气(600290.SS，中性) 尽管盈利增长强劲，预计2007-2010 年
盈利年均复合增长率将达到44%，但我们认为其未经历练过的设计/生产能力降低
了未来盈利的可预见性。
我们的观点面临的风险
1) 零部件供应链风险；2) 监管法规变化；3) 来自外国企业的竞争加剧。
*全文翻译将随后提供

Table of contents
We favor players with an established track record: Goldwind (Buy) is our top pick; Neutral for CHSTE and Huayi 2
Valuation: PEG the preferred valuation metric 3
Demand drivers: mandatory incentives + potentially improved economics 6
Growth bottlenecks: supply tightness + operational reliability + technology gap 9
Earnings potential: market share expansion on protective regulatory regime 11
Margin trends: Lower opex a cushion for domestic WTG makers; strong pricing power of component makers
minimizes margin downside 12
Goldwind (002202.SZ, Buy): Best placed on established track record 14
China High Speed (0685.HK, Neutral): Geared for growth 17
Huayi Electric (600290.SS, Neutral): Position in transition 20
Appendix I: Corporate structure 23
Appendix II: Industry highlights 24
Disclosures 27
The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of August 29, 2008, unless otherwise indicated.
We favor players with an established track record: Goldwind (Buy)
is our top pick; Neutral for CHSTE and Huayi
We initiate coverage on the Chinese wind power sector with a Neutral sector view. We are
bullish on China’s wind power demand fundamentals. We view China’s alternative
energy policies and potential improvement in wind economics as two major demand
drivers. We see upside to the 18% 2007-2010 demand CAGR projected by the government,
and 34% by BTM (a leading global consulting firm specializing in renewable energy).
We believe Chinese players are well positioned to benefit from the strong domestic
demand potential, thanks to China’s protective regulatory regime. In our view, this should
greatly alleviate competitive pressures from foreign peers with better technology and
more established track records. However, we expect component supply tightness to cap
domestic players’ near-term growth potential and believe their lower operational reliability
and technological gap with foreign peers to be mid/long term constraints.
While we believe investors may prefer prospective or already vertically integrated players
amid component supply tightness, as far as China is concerned, we see specialized
players with stable supply chain and established track records as better
positioned. We believe the vertically integrated business model is still too daunting a
challenge for the Chinese WTG players to conquer in the near term. The difficulties in
obtaining capital, technological expertise, operational synergy and efficiency will, in our
view, be insurmountable in the near future.
Goldwind (Buy) is our top pick on better risk/reward profile, 12-month PEG-based TP
of Rmb33, 40% potential upside. Although its domestic accumulated wind capacity
installation market share slipped 2 pp yoy to 23% in 2007 due to the rapid emergence of
new entrants, we believe Goldwind is capable of fending off its competition and
maintaining its leadership position as (1) its long-term relationship with component
suppliers effectively reduces supply risk, and (2) its proven operating track record bodes
well for order inflows.