德国最大咨询公司-罗曼罗兰公司财务分析

DBTel Corporation
Turnaround Story Continues in 2004
In evolving from an OEM to a brand manufacturer, DBTel has surprised the
handset market in China with strong sales momentum in 2H03. Its aggressive
FY04 plans would boost results further, driven by expansions in SE Asia, India and
China. We are initiating coverage with a 1-Overweight rating on the shares and a
price target of NT$67, or 12x our FY04 EPS estimate.

  DBTel is a fast-growing handset manufacturer with solid systems development and
integration expertise from Taiwan and low-cost manufacturing in China. It markets
its own brand and has an expanding portfolio of about 30 models sold through
distributors and retailers. DBTel’s combination of a sales-marketing focus and solid
technology sets it apart from other local vendors. Its ability to develop brand
recognition quickly is a direct result of marketing campaigns and channel
development in 2003.

  We expect rapid growth in the company’s unit shipments, from 4.9mn in 2003 to
8.4mn in 2004 (5.4mn from China, 2mn from SE Asia, 700k from Taiwan and
Hong Kong, and 300k from others). We expect the operating margin to improve
to around 18% in FY04, up from 14%–15% in FY03, based on a gross margin of
34%–35% (higher than its local peers’ average of 19%–21%). We expect DBTel’s
launch of high-end models this year to offset any ASP and margin pressure on its
low-end models in China.
Based on Q1 operating results, DBTel is tracking well, with SE Asia/India already
accounting for 10% of the total unit volume at 200k. We believe channel inventory
is under control though still higher than we would like to see, and any listing of its
China operation would add transparency and liquidity to the stock.

  Barring execution risks, we believe DBTel is an underestimated handset play with
near-term momentum and operating leverage. We see rewards overweighing risks.