宏观经济因素与犯罪率：

基于中国1978－2005的实证研究

黄少安 陈屹立

内容摘要：本文对中国1978－2005年间收入分配、教育、失业以及城市化和贫困等宏观经济因素对犯罪率的影响进行了实证考察，结果发现，全国、城市内部、农村内部以及城乡之间的收入差距对犯罪率产生了显著的影响，教育水准的提高则能够有效的减少犯罪率，失业和农村贫困也对犯罪率产生了影响，改革开放以来的城市化进程则大大提高了中国的犯罪率。

关 键 词：收入差距 国民教育 犯罪率

 

Macroeconomic factors and Crime Rates in China: 1978-2005

                    Huang Shao-an and Chen Yi-li

(Centre for Economic Research, Shandong University)

Abstract: Through the empirical inspection of crime rates 1978-2005 in China, we find that income distribution inequity, national education, unemployment rate as well as urbanization and the poor in countryside can explain China's crime rates very well. The model indicate that the income distribution inequity whatever in nation、cities、countryside or between cities and country all give a remarkable impact on crime rates; improvement of national education can reduce crime rates effectively; unemployment and the poor in countryside also have an influence on crime rates; the urbanization in China have induced a great increase of crime rates.

Key words: Income Distribution Gap; National Education; Crime Rates

JEL Classification: K140