财政赤字与国民储蓄——来自中国经济的经验证据（1978-2004）

许雄奇1 张宗益2

（重庆工学院经济学系重庆400050）1

（重庆大学经济与工商管理学院重庆400044）2

Xu Xiongqi1  Zhang Zongyi2

(Department of Economics, Chongqing Institute of Technology Chongqing400050)1

(College of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University Chongqing400044)2

 

摘要：在探讨财政赤字与国民储蓄的理论关系以及中国国民储蓄影响因素的基础上，运用时间序列方法，在5变量系统内检验了1978-2004年中国财政赤字与国民储蓄的关系。实证结果显示，中国财政赤字、国民储蓄、实际GDP、实际利率和人口结构指标的5变量之间存在长期均衡的协整关系；存在从实际GDP、实际利率和人口结构指标到国民储蓄的Granger因果关系，实际GDP增加、实际利率水平提高、就业人员占总人口的比重提高均导致国民储蓄增加；但是，并不存在从财政赤字到国民储蓄的Granger因果关系。这为重新估计中国财政政策的作用提供了理论依据和实证支持，也从一个新的角度解释了中国国民储蓄变动的原因。

关键词：财政赤字；国民储蓄；协整；因果关系；广义脉冲响应函数

Abstract: On the basis of probing into the correlation between the fiscal deficits and the national savings and the factors affecting the national savings, this paper empirically tests the relationship between the fiscal deficits and the national savings in China over the period 1978-2004, using time series analysis in a 5 variables system. The results indicate that, there is a long-term co-integration among the fiscal deficits, the national savings, the real GDP, the real interest rate and the demographic changes. The real GDP, the real interest rate and the demographic changes all Granger cause to the national savings, and the national savings rise along with a real GDP rise, a real interest rate rise and a positive demographic changes. But there is no Granger cause from the fiscal deficits to the national savings. It gives a theoretic and empirical support to re-estimate the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal deficits, and the fluctuation of the national savings has been explained with a new point of view.

Key Words:Fiscal deficits, National savings, Cointegration, Granger causality, Generalized impulse responses function