我国保险业影响因素的实证分析——基于空间面板数据模型

部分内容如下：

我国保险业影响因素的实证分析
——基于空间面板数据模型
薛飞飞 叶阿忠
(福州大学数量经济研究所)
摘要：目前保险在经济可持续发展、社会和谐稳定中发挥了越来越重要的作用。正确、科学的分析保险需求的影响因素是保险业又快又好发展的迫切要求。本文利用空间面板数据模型从经济因素、人口因素、政策因素、金融因素四个方面考察了促进或抑制保险业发展的因素。研究结果表明，经济因素中GDP、固定资产投资总额、第三产业占GDP的比例与保险需求显著正相关，第二产业占GDP的比例与保险需求关系不显著；人口因素中总人口、老年人口比例与保险需求显著正相关，成人文盲率与保险需求显著负相关；政策因素中国家财政支出的社会保障基金支出、用于抚恤和社会福利支出与保险需求显著正相关；金融因素中城乡居民存款余额与保险需求显著正相关。并且全国保险业存在着明显的正向空间依赖性。
关键词：保险业 空间计量模型 空间依赖性

Empirical Study on the influence factors of China's Insurance Industry
—Based on spatial panel data model
Xue Feifei & Ye Azhong
(Institute of Quantitative Economics, Fuzhou University)
Abstract：At present, insurance is playing an increasingly important role on sustainable economic development and social harmony. To analysis the influence factors which affects the demands of insurance is an urgent request to insure that the insurance industry can developed rapidly and healthy. Using spatial panel data model , this paper inspected four aspects that promote or inhibit the development of the insurance industry , including economic factors, demographic factors, policies factors and financial factors .The result shows that, some of the economic factors, such as GDP, the total investment in fixed assets in the whole Country and the tertiary industry’s share of GDP , are significantly positive correlated to the insurance needs, but the secondary industry's share of GDP is not significant. The total population and the proportion of elderly people ,which belong to demographic factors, are significantly positive correlated to the insurance needs, but the adult illiteracy rates is significant negative correlated to it. As for policy factors, expenditure for the social security fund, expenditure for pension and social welfare are significantly positive correlated to the insurance needs. At last, the savings deposit of urban and rural, which belong to financial factors, is significantly correlated to insurance needs. it also exit a clear positive space-dependent to the national insurance industry.
Key words : Insurance business, spatial panel data model , space-dependent