ASPs are likely to remain strong. We
raise our LCD TV shipment forecast 7%,
to 123m units
􀀗 Tight supply should last till 4Q09, with
inventory levels remaining healthy
through year-end
􀀗 Reiterate our OW(V) on AUO, LGD, and
Sharp
A continued earnings recovery is the main potential
catalyst ahead. Our LCD earnings forecasts are far ahead of
consensus (please refer to the table on page 5). We believe
consensus numbers will rise following a continued panel
price recovery and catalyse share price performance.
Stronger-than-expected LCD TV demand. We have raised
our 2009 global LCD TV shipment forecast to 123m units
(17% y-o-y) versus our original forecast of 115m units (13%
y-o-y) on better 1Q09 demand. Our LCD TV volume
forecast is at the low end of consensus due to inadequate
expected panel supply. We see demand from China as the
main driver for LCD TV in the next few years.
Tight supply should last till 4Q09, with inventory under
control. Despite panel makers having moved ahead their
new capacity ramp-up schedule, this added only limited
incremental supply to our global LCD supply model and
believe the supply shortage will last till 4Q09 with the
supply chain inventory well under control.
OW(V) on AUO, LGD, and Sharp; UW(V) on Innolux and
Novatek. Our OW(V) call is supported by a favourable industry
outlook and undemanding valuations. Our UW(V) call on
Innolux and Novatek is mainly on expensive 2009 valuations,
and we believe it is too early to factor in the 2010 outlook.

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