Contents
Key BNP Paribas macro messages................. 3
Macroeconomic policy update ..................... 4
Key BNPP economic projection............. 5
Themes......................................... 6
Growth to accelerate in 2H09 6
Measures to cool off lending 9
Household savings, asset liquidity mystery 12
China rebalancing; vs exchange rate outlook 14
Macroeconomic monitor .............................. 16
GDP growth 16
Industrial performance 17
Sources of growth 22
Money and inflation 27
Market performance and rates 31
Appendices .............................. 35
1. 12-month major economic indicators 35
2. 12-month major industrial products 37
3. Industrial profitability 38
4. Urban fixed-asset investment growth by sector 39
5. Key economic forecasts 41