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[下载]Probability-The Science of Uncertainty With Application to Investments Insurance and Engineering(PDF版)

文件格式:Pdf 可复制性:可复制 TAG标签: 投资风险 点击次数: 更新时间:2010-05-12 16:54
介绍

The volatility of oil price has a great effect on the economy. Some media even assert that “the current financial crisis is a direct result of peak oil” (“Where we”). It is undeniable that some financial crises in the history are more or less related to the increase in oil price, but there are still questions unsolved. Now it becomes necessary to understand the effect of oil price change on GDP. Economists have been quick to point out that oil price change may influence GDP. For example, J. Peter Ferderer analyzes three questions that have the potential to explain the effects of oil price on macro economy in his paper Oil Price Volatility and the Macroeconomy. Michael R. Darby explains the extent to which the aggregate supply shifts as the oil price goes up in their paper The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession. Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler and Mark Watson and conclude that an important part of the effect of oil price

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