Value remains in the Thai banks. Thai banks still look cheap compared
with regional peers on P/B - ROE metrics, and seem to over discount
country risk. They also look undervalued against the SET as a whole.
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NPLs are almost certain to rise in 2Q-3Q, but we now place greater
confidence than before in our forecasts. We expect provisions to stay
within our new, slightly more optimistic, sector forecasts.
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We expect reported margins to trough in 3Q and news flow to turn
positive earlier. Policy rate cuts seem to have ended, and chances look
good for the yield curve to steepen further in 3Q. Unusually low
margins should restore some pricing discipline in 2H.
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Cost-cutting is gaining momentum. Banks are reducing headcount and
slowing branch expansion. Operating expenses could fall short of
market expectations.
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We have raised our sector earnings forecasts for 2009 and 2010 by 5%
and 7%, respectively, and refinement of our DDM model has further
raised target prices for most stocks. Our model now adjusts more
effectively for differences in CAR ratios of individual banks.
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KBANK remains our top pick. We find it the most attractively valued
stock even after its recent outperformance, and easing asset quality
concerns should benefit it disproportionately. We also upgrade BAY to
OUTPERFORM on more attractive valuations, and keep our
OUTPERFORM on BBL and TISCO.
Still some juice left
Valuation upside remains
Despite their rally this year, Thai banks still look cheap. The discount to regional banks,
the region and the Thai market as a whole remains unusually wide, without fundamental
justification. Although valuations across the sector differ hugely, several key banks offer
good upside to our new target prices.
Asset quality outlook clearer
We still expect NPLs to rise considerably in 2Q and 3Q, but we now feel more confident of
our forecasts. 1Q09 bank results showed few signs provisions will exceed our forecasts,
and data from the Bank of Thailand (BOT) indicates that reported NPL increases might
have exaggerated the deterioration in asset quality in 1Q. We have ticked down our
provisioning forecasts for most banks.
Margins nearing trough
Margins should continue to deteriorate in the short run, but we expect 3Q to see the
trough, and for news flow to turn positive earlier. A steepening yield curve should return
pricing power to banks, and the combination of historically low margins and high
provisions could help restore pricing discipline. The likely end of BOT rate cuts should
remove the biggest drag on margins.
Cost cutting gaining momentum
We see significant upside from cost cutting. The branching wars seems to be ending, and
attrition looks likely to cut headcount. Although we do not forecast a fall in operating
expenses, the break-neck growth of recent years should end. We have lowered opex
forecasts for most banks on signs of significant cost-cutting efforts.
Higher target prices and profit forecasts
Lower opex and provisions allow us to raise earnings for most banks. An adjustment to our
Dividend Discount Model (DDM) has provided better differentiation among well- and
poorly-capitalised banks, while raising target prices for most beyond the increases arising
from profit forecast hikes.
KBANK our top pick
Despite its outperformance, KBANK remains our top pick. Our valuations still identify it as
the cheapest bank, and we expect declining concerns over asset quality to remove the
biggest overhang for the stock. We see less compelling short-term catalysts for BBL, but
also find it attractively valued. We upgrade BAY to OUTPERFORM after its extended
period of underperformance has improved valuations. We still like TISCO for its high ROE,
risk management and market share gains.
Global factors the biggest risk
A possible correction in global bank stocks and rising oil prices pose the biggest risk to our
optimistic view on Thai banks. Although the linkage has eased since October last year, the
correlation of Thai banks with global bank stocks remains unusually high. If oil prices
continue to rise, concerns over the impact on the economy could place a drag on bank
performance, and the sector could underperform energy.