Table of contents
Overview: Opportunities emerging on eight themes 2
Theme #1: Copper channel checks show demand is real and back to 2008 peak 10
Theme #2: Better-than-expected recovery speed is positive for coal 11
Theme #3: Demand recovery could lead to a steel shortage 15
Theme #4: OECD recovery is positive for global commodities 19
Theme #5: China demand size structurally lowers global excess risk 22
Theme #6: Focus on sustainability of supply-side names – steel/coal 25
Theme #7: Consolidation leader could increase cycle leverage 26
Theme #8: Valuations continue to trade at or below mid-cycle – steel/coal/aluminum 28
Earnings/target price upgrades on fundamental upside surprise 29
Valuations 39
Summary financials 47
Disclosures 66