Precious Metals Outlook
Central Bank Gold Agreement Renewed
Last week, the ECB along with the 16 central banks that use the euro plus the
Swedish and Swiss central banks issued a joint statement renewing the Central Bank
Gold Agreement (CBGA) for a third five-year term. The group holds a combined
11,992 tonnes of gold representing approximately 40% of global central bank gold
holdings. Annual sales are limited to 400 tonnes per year, down from the 500 tonne
annual limit of the preceding agreement. The new agreement also notes that the
planned IMF sale of 403 tonnes can be accommodated within the 400 tonne annual
limit.
While the renewal of the agreement was largely expected, the lower sales limit is a
positive to the gold market, in our view, as there was some market speculation that
the annual limit could be raised. Nonetheless, as we show in Exhibit 1, official sales
under the agreement over the past few years have fallen well below the limit. GFMS
expects central bank sales this year to be the lowest since 1994. The Swiss National
bank which has accounted for 40% of the gold sales under the previous two CBGAs
issued a statement that it has no plans for any further gold sales in the foreseeable
future. Going forward we expect central bank gold sales to remain muted as we
believe the credit crisis has renewed interest in holding gold among central banks
and certain central banks, notably the Chinese and Russian, have been adding to their
holdings over the past few years.