Table of Contents
Key Investment Points .............................................................3
Top 5 Threats to Steel Industry Recovery..............................7
Threat #1: Production Discipline Breaks Down with Restarts.....................................7
Threat #2: Restocking Occurs with a “Whimper” & Not with a “Bang”.....................12
Threat #3: No Recovery in End Market Demand ......................................................15
End Market Analysis: Construction...........................................................................16
End Market Analysis: Automotive ............................................................................18
Threat #4: The Import Threat: “We don’t need your steel!”...........................21
Threat #5: Structural Oversupply: “We don’t need our steel!”.........................25
ArcelorMittal ...........................................................................31
Salzgitter .................................................................................32
Outokumpu .............................................................................33
Klöckner & Co.........................................................................34
ThyssenKrupp ........................................................................35
Voestalpine .............................................................................36
SSAB .......................................................................................37
Acerinox..................................................................................38
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................39