Contents page
Executive summary 3
— Sector and company view ....................................................................................3
— Key conclusions ...................................................................................................4
— Implied impact......................................................................................................5
Re-launching the proprietary database 8
— New product supply and demand balance............................................................9
— Key projects .......................................................................................................11
— Where is the capacity coming onstream?...........................................................12
— How have our estimates changed? ....................................................................13
— What is the rationale for the refineries? ..............................................................13
— Project delays ....................................................................................................14
— What is the build time and costs of new refineries? ..............................................15
— What are the economics of a new refinery?........................................................16
— Refinery closures or capacity reductions ............................................................16
— Oil capacity versus refining capacity growth .......................................................17
— What crudes are the refineries going to use? .....................................................18
— Other non-refinery supply...................................................................................20
— Methodology ......................................................................................................22
Supply and demand charts 25
— Global surplus/deficit by product ........................................................................27
— Regional surplus/deficit ......................................................................................30
— Refining crack spreads.......................................................................................42
Project tables............................................. 43