【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球石油行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：44
        【目录或简介】：

The Next Cycle Could Be Different
■ Changes to Our Supply-Demand Model Lead to Greater Tightening:
We’ve made a number of adjustments to our supply and demand model.
Higher demand estimates have trumped raised supply potential to lead to a
net tightening of spare capacity relative to our prior forecasts. This is
supportive of near-term prices. We raised oil prices to $80/bbl from $70/bbl,
with a new trading range of $70-90/bbl. The futures strip is in the
mid-$80s/bbl through 2010 and slightly above $90/bbl through to 2015.
■ Demand Momentum Might Peak in Coming Quarters: Oil prices have
nearly doubled in the past 12-months as the US ISM and global IP
momentum rapidly recovered off its lows. This has happened in the face of
high spare capacity. We might be moving into an end game. Oil prices will
likely continue to receive support from rising demand estimates as the
OECD takes over from non-OECD as the source of incremental positive oil
demand news flow. However, IP may be peaking. Oil prices typically
stabilise or roll-over once IP has peaked. The debate will then shift to the
next phase.
■ Tightening Markets Expected Through to 2013: Demand is expected to
outpace supply growth through 2013. This will lead to a tightening of spare
capacity to as low as 3MBD by 2013. There remains a residual risk that the
oil price up-cycle reignites, if demand recovers more strongly than our raised
forecasts today or if supply falls short. We note that OPEC stands ready to
add barrels to the market if substantial oil price upside above $85/bbl
materialises.
■ A Very Different World Might Emerge Beyond 2015: While it’s too early to
impact oil prices, a different world may emerge as we look further ahead.
We’ve included a “what-if” analysis that evaluates what would happen if
Russian Tax reform came through, if recent discoveries made their way into
production, if Iraq delivered 5mbd by 2017, and if the market levers on
demand (gas substitution and lower energy intensity) started working their
magic in the OECD, China and the Middle East. Under these circumstances,
global spare capacity would at first fall to 4MBD in 2013-14, but then start
rising sharply after 2015. Pricing in this world would likely be very different to
the fear that has placed a bid under oil prices this past decade. In the
recovery phase evidence to support this “what-if” might be difficult to find,
but we are monitoring the data closely.