【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月伊拉克石油天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：加拿大丰业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：87
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Investment Themes and Recommendations 2
Valuation Analysis – High Risk = Steep NAV Discounts 3
Iraq Overview – Big Oil Country! 5
Kurdistan Region of Iraq – Building Its Own Success 7
Political Overview – In Need of a Federal Oil and Gas Law 8
Infrastructure – A Key Risk to Development Timelines 9
Kurdistan Fiscal Term Overview 10
Kurdistan Players – A Closer Look at the Action 12
Consolidation Potential with Size Discoveries 12
Exploration Activity Set to Rise in 2010/11 16
Prolific Prospects, But Challenging Realities 18
Evaluating the Kurdish Economics – Big Potential! 21
Key Assumptions 21
Vast Exploration Inc. – Ready to Summit the Black Mountain 25
Longford Energy Inc. – Blast from the Past 43
ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. – Three Blocks Heating Up in 2011 61

Investment Themes and Recommendations
In our view, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq has the potential to emerge as a new global energy player
in the context of targets of nearly half a billion barrels and goals of reaching 1.0 mmbbl/d over the
next five years. That said, we believe exploration in Kurdistan offers amongst the highest-impact catalyst
potential within our International E&P coverage universe in 2010. Activity in the region is expected to
increase significantly with as many as 13-18 wells to spud this year and more than 15 in 2011. The ability
to recommence exports later this year from the Tawke and Taq Taq fields, and the potential signing of a
federal Oil and Gas Law, also represent material catalysts for the region and the companies involved.
However, we note the lack of infrastructure, limited exploration, complex geology, and inability to
establish an export payment mechanism/federal Oil and Gas Law as key challenges for companies in
Kurdistan that also yields an above-average risk profile.
We have initiated coverage on the common shares of Vast Exploration Inc. (VST-V), Longford
Energy Inc. (LFD-V), and ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. (SNM-V). A summary of our one-year target
prices, total returns, and relative valuations is contained within Exhibits 1.2-1.3.
 Billion barrel potential the norm in Kurdistan. Kurdistan lies within the prolific and underexplored
Zagros Fold Belt of northern Iraq/Iran, an area believed to possess 38 billion barrels of undiscovered
recoverable crude oil resource. Our assessment of Kurdistan discoveries implies impressive upside given
the original oil-in-place (OOIP) estimates that have been in excess of a billion barrels on average. Based
on our evaluation, a discovery of 100 mmbbl-500 mmbbl recoverable could ultimately imply an NPV10 of
US$230 million-US$1,869 million or after-tax IRRs of 25%-48%, respectively. We also note that a
minimum discovery of 50 mmbbl likely is required to pursue commercial development (see Exhibit 1.1).
 Activity set to ramp up in 2010/11. The success of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and its
Ministry of Natural Resources is highlighted by the fact that over 38 production-sharing contracts (PSCs/
EPSAs) have been signed with ~38 international companies since 2004. As such, activity is now setting
new pace with material catalyst potential as exploration ramps up. We also note the high probability of
potential takeovers due to the large number of small to mid-sized players involved in one of the last
onshore regions to offer oil fields with 100-500 mmbbl of ultimate recoverable resource.
 Top Kurdistan pick: Vast Exploration. We view Vast Exploration Inc. (1-Sector Outperform) as
offering one of the highest potential rewards within our Kurdistan coverage universe in 2010, given its
combination of large OOIP targets (1.7 billion-4.9 billion barrels) and material near-term catalysts. Vast is
expected to spud its first exploration well on the Niko Resources-operated Qara Dagh Block (37% wi) in
early April (results in July/August), the materiality of which we estimate at $1.40 per share risked
($5.05 unrisked) based on our NAV analysis. That said, given the limited exploration activity in Kurdistan
and high drilling costs, Vast remains highly speculative today and carries an above-average risk profile.
V A L U A T I O N A N A L Y S I S – H I G H R I S K = S T E E P N A V D I S C O U N T S
Given the complexity of valuing pure-play exploration companies with no cash flow, we have elected
to use a risked NAV approach that incorporates third-party estimates for original oil-in-place
and/or prospective resources where available. That said, our overall valuation analysis (P/NAV – risked
and unrisked) and resource/land estimates support our thesis toward Kurdistan’s high-impact potential that
exists. Our Kurdistan peer group includes WesternZagros Resources Ltd., Vast Exploration, ShaMaran,
and Longford, with our one-year target prices based on our risked NAV analysis. Our ratings distribution
includes a relative ranking between an exploration peer group1 (see Exhibit 1.2).
 P/NAV – risked and unrisked. We have assessed our NAVs largely on the basis of our discounted
cash flow analysis (NPV12) of potential developments using, where available, P50 (best case) OOIP/
prospective resource estimates and/or analogues from discovered fields in the region. Under this basis our
Kurdistan peer group is trading at a P/NAV ratio of 21% unrisked and 74% risked, which is also a
discount to our International E&P universe averages of 40% and 91%, respectively. In our view, the
discount is warranted due to the higher risk profile of exploration-based companies.
 Market cap to resource estimates and land holdings. While somewhat limited for direct
comparability, we have also provided price-to-resource and price-to-land estimates. That said, our
Kurdistan group is trading at an average of $0.38 per net P50 OOIP barrel, but we recognize the
significant variability in the estimates and limited data available for certain blocks. On the basis of net
acreage held in Kurdistan, the companies are trading at roughly $1.12 per net thousand acres, excluding
Gulf Keystone. Our full International E&P universe comparative valuation analysis is contained within
Exhibit 1.3.
1 Note: Our exploration company rankings are based on a benchmark of primarily exploration-based companies
with operations focused in the Middle East and Africa, which includes WesternZagros (Kurdistan), Longford
Energy (Kurdistan), ShaMaran Petroleum (Kurdistan), DNO (Kurdistan), Vast Exploration (Kurdistan), Gulf
Keystone (Kurdistan/Algeria), Heritage Oil (Kurdistan), Sterling Energy (Kurdistan/Africa), Groundstar
Resources (Kurdistan/Egypt), Gulfsands Petroleum (Iraq/Syria), Sea Dragon Energy (Egypt), Hardy Oil & Gas
(India/Nigeria), ERHC Energy (Nigeria/JDZ), and Chariot Oil & Gas (Namibia).