Table of Contents
Short-term gains, long-term pain............................................3
Investment strategy for the sector ....................................5
Outlook for Ethylene remains bearish....................................8
Can it get worse? We think so...............................................11
Risk #1: Capacity rationalization already assumed.....................11
Risk #2: Middle East and China off to the races? ......................11
Risk #3: N America & W Europe demand remains weak...................15
Further capacity pressure: The Chinese petrochemical stimulus plan ....16
Who are the survivors?..........................................................18
Consolidation within Asia?....................................................18
Korea vs. Taiwan ................................................................19
1Q09 earnings review: Round 1 goes to Korea.......................20
PVC..........................................................................................23
Perhaps the least affected by the Middle East...........................23
MEG.........................................................................................26
A harbinger of things to come for Ethylene/PE..........................26
Aromatics (Benzene, PX, PTA)..............................................28
It has been surprisingly strong in 2Q but watch out…...............28
Longer-term outlook remains negative for PX ........................29
Glimmer of hope for PTA by 2010......................................31
Companies
Formosa Plastics Corp ...........................................................34
Nan Ya Plastics Corp............................................................39
Formosa Chemicals and Fibre Corp...............................44
Formosa Petrochemical Corp.............................................49
LG Chem Ltd ....................................................................54
Hanwha Chemical Corp.....................................................59
Honam Petrochemical Corp...............................................64
PTT Chemical Public Company .........................................69
PTT Aromatics and Refining Public Company Limited ..........73
Appendix .................................................................................77
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