Commodity generics
markets offer opportunity:
the US
We project that the US generics market will continue to grow at a
mid-single digit CAGR through 2012, with price declines more
than offset by patent expiries and increased utilization
We believe that globally diversified, vertically integrated
companies with a large sales base can extract decent (mid-20s)
margins from the US commodity generics business
In our view, these trends of modest growth and profitability, with
the right cost structure, are generally applicable to commodity
generics markets
Summary
Our analysis of the US generics market suggests
that this market should grow at mid-single digits
in the medium-term and remain an attractive focus
for globally diversified, vertically integrated
companies with a large sales base. The key
conclusions of our analysis are:
1 The market should continue to grow in the
mid-single digits in the medium-term
(through 2012) driven primarily by patent
expiries and generic utilization
2 Pricing declines should continue at the 5-10%
annual level given the market structure and its
ongoing attractiveness to globally diversified
vertically integrated companies with a large
sales base
3 Operating margins calculated for the US
commodity generics (excluding exclusive
launches, authorized generics and
specialty/proprietary products) business of
historically US focussed companies is
applicable only to companies that derive the
majority of their sales from the US market
and are not vertically integrated to an
appreciable extent
4 Globally diversified, vertically-integrated
companies with a large sales base can extract
respectable operating margins (we estimate
around mid-20s) from the US commodity
generics business
目录
Commodity generics markets
offer opportunity: the US 8
Branded generics markets are
promising and in transition:
CEE and CIS 19
Managing the transition will
decide the winners 33
Company profiles 45
Teva Pharmaceutical 46
Novartis 51
Hikma 55
STADA Arzneimittel 60
Gedeon Richter 64
Sun Pharmaceuticals 71
Dr. Reddy’s 77
Cipla 81
Disclosure appendix 88
Disclaimer 91 | 