【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国制造业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
Strong start to the year points to risk of overheating
Most of the macro data for January and February came in stronger than expected,
leading our economists to point to an increasing risk of overheating. This month
DB economists raised their 2011 GDP growth forecasts to +9.3% (from +9.0%),
maintaining a 2010 forecast of +9.8%. Although FAI growth forecasts are
unchanged, the mix has shifted to a lower forecast contribution from infrastructure
and higher contribution from manufacturing. In our feature article this month we
examine the construction machinery market.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Global Markets Research Company
Macro trends – export momentum continues
In the latest January/February data release, China posted another set of
encouraging trade data. Exports rose +45.7% YoY, beating market consensus
forecasts (for +38%), and imports grew +44.7% YoY. The powerful rebound in
external demand also brought a healthy pickup in industrial activity – industrial
production rose 20.7% YoY in January/February, an acceleration from the +18% in
Q409.
Feature article – Construction machinery in China.
The China construction machinery market is highly concentrated. The primary
products - wheel-loaders and excavators - represent the biggest sectors in terms
of unit sales volume and sales revenue respectively. In the excavator market,
advanced technology is required and foreign players dominate - the top four
players (Doosan, Komatsu, Hitachi and Hyundai) are all foreign and account for
~54% of the excavator market. In the wheel-loader market however, lower
technology is required and domestic players dominate - Lonking, Xia Gong and Liu
Gong account for ~54% of the wheel-loader market. Infrastructure investment
was the key driver of almost all the sales recovery in construction machinery in
2009; in 2010 DB economists believe infrastructure FAI growth will slow, driven
by lower government investment.
China industrial news-flow
In this month’s press roundup we highlight that i) China may draft a Smart-Grid
proposal in the country’s strategic plan; ii) China is set to use domestically
produced third generation nuclear technology by 2017; iii) energy consumption per
unit of GDP fell by 2.2% in 2009, less than the government target of a 5% fall; and
iv) China overtook the US as the world’s largest real estate investment market in
2009.
Valuation and risks
For our valuation methodology in Europe, we prefer to use EV/EBIT and DCF
selectively. In the US, our preferred valuation methodology is DCF, supporting this
with relative multiple analysis with a preference for P/E and EV/EBITDA. Risks: The
capital goods sector is very diverse. Demand for industrial products correlates
with GDP over time but can diverge significantly over the shorter term depending
on company-specific factors. (See page 33 for more detail).
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Introduction..............................................................................................................................3
Macro forecast: FAI forecast changed, 2011 GDP projection raised ........................................3
Feature article: Construction Machinery in China......................................................................3
China industrials news-flow ......................................................................................................3
China forecasts .................................................................................. 4
China forecasts update .............................................................................................................7
The big picture................................................................................... 9
Chinese inflation.......................................................................................................................9
Industrial Value Added ............................................................................................................10
Urban FAI ...............................................................................................................................11
Electricity Generation..............................................................................................................13
Chinese PMI: lower Feb official PMI due to seasonal factors.................................................14
Cargo Freight Mileage.............................................................................................................15
OECD CLI...............................................................................................................................16
Construction Machinery in China................................................... 17
Introduction............................................................................................................................17
Overview................................................................................................................................17
Industry growth has high correlation with macro economy....................................................19
Excavator market ....................................................................................................................21
Wheel loader market...............................................................................................................24
Domestic Players ....................................................................................................................25
Industrial news flow........................................................................ 29
Macro economy......................................................................................................................29
Industry ..................................................................................................................................30
Company news .......................................................................................................................31
Valuation & risks ............................................................................. 33
Europe....................................................................................................................................33
US ..........................................................................................................................................33
Risks ......................................................................................................................................33
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