Remain positive for now. Stocks look set to rally further as solid economic newsflow should prompt earnings upgrades – we see upside risk to our forecast for 2010 profit growth to 23%. While trailing PE multiples are moving back toward longer-term averages equity valuations remain attractive relative to other asset classes, M&A appears to be picking up and sentiment toward stocks is not excessive. Although serious long-term fundamental concerns are likely to see equities move within a wide trading range for some years, we think investors should keep a reasonably high beta portfolio in the near term and should maintain a roughly equal cyclical/defensive mix. Significant downside is unlikely until interest rate and inflation fears pick up.
•Investment strategy. For the next few months we recommend investors run a reasonable degree of beta in their portfolios and we recommend an overweight in areas such as Energy, Mining, Industrials, Life Assurance and Asset Managers. We would be underweight Consumer cyclicals, Staples and Utilities. On a 12-month view we believe there is outstanding value on offer from quality growth stocks (e.g. a basket of our reliable growth stocks trades at an all-time relative valuation low vs the market) and would look to increase weightings in these names over the next quarter ready for 2010. Companies that meet such criteria include: BAE Systems, Compass, Reckitt Benckiser, Vodafone, Burberry, First Group and Imperial Tobacco.
• Current Investment Themes: (1) Reliable growth – A volatile and uncertain macro environment should favour stocks that have a good track record of producing consistent profit growth. Overweight rated stocks in our reliable growth screen (P49-51) include: Reckitt Benckiser, Imperial Tobacco, BAE Systems, BAT, TUI, Vodafone, Rolls Royce, Diageo, Balfour Beatty, SABMiller, Scot. & Southern Energy, Xstrata, Compass Group.
(2) Overweight Resources – We are OW Energy and Materials in the European Model Portfolio due to: 1) Play on recovering Chinese economy and possible bubble in Chinese equities; 2) Steep yield curve; 3) Strong earnings momentum in coming months; 4) Sentiment survey suggests investors are not overweight sector.
(3) Take profits in consumer cyclicals – Consumer cyclicals have performed strongly as befits their early cycle characteristics. Valuations are becoming stretched and we prefer Capital Goods to General Retail.
(4) Prefer Overseas Exposure – Weaker GBP and weaker domestic growth suggests investors should look for companies that generate a large proportion of their sales/profits outside of the UK.
(5) Yield curve – The yield curve may slowly flatten over the next few months, however the overall level is likely to remain quite steep. This should be favourable for commodity and industrial stocks and delay renewed defensive outperformance.
(6) The importance of dividends – With interest rates set to remain low for some time, stocks with a solid dividend profile should perform well.
(7) Mid250 vs FTSE100 – Mid250 has enjoyed a record 6m outperformance over FTSE100; however, valuations are not as extended as is often perceived and its greater cyclical composition means that significant FTSE100 outperformance is delayed until we get closer to first rate hike .
Regular Stock screens: (1) Low Fixed Charge Cover (P41) – Underweight-rated stocks include: Punch Tavern, Rank, Go-Ahead, HMV, Enterprise Inns, Kingfisher, Severn Trent.
(2) Private Equity (P42) – New entrants incl: WSP Group, William Hill, United Business Media, Enterprise Inns, First Group, Marshalls,BBA Aviation (3) 3 U’s and 3 O’s (P43-46) – New entrants to 3 Us this month: Electrocomponents, Enterprise Inns, Friends Prov, HMV, Marshalls, Soco.
(4-5) Director Deals & Buybacks (P49) – No significant buybacks.