After years of “discussion,” three China 3G licenses were finally granted this
January. It is an unknown how exactly the 3G services will impact the mobile
operators’ bottomline. However, it is a great opportunity to the 3G handset
makers as the replacement of the existing 690 mn 2G handsets has begun,
making the 3G handset sales grow fast from scratch.
The Chinese handset market has been lacklustre since 2007, as the overhang
of the 3G service roll-out time depresses the launch of new handset models.
Truly (0732.HK, HK$6.39, NEUTRAL [V], TP HK$5.05), China’s largest
handset display supplier with 50% share in the Chinese branded handset
market, is a clear beneficiary. The Chinese mobile users are price-conscious. It
is believed that the mainstream Chinese brand 3G handsets will be priced
below US$150, much lower than the imported brands with lot of functions that
are not used by the ordinary users. Like the 2G handsets, the lower-priced
Chinese brand 3G handsets should finally dominate the market.
Focusing on these Chinese brands, Truly expects its display revenue to rise
40% YoY with half of the sales coming from the 3G handsets in 2010. Its
currently under-utilised small-sized TFT panel line should see a pick up in
utilisation, margins and hence profitability next year. Although the full impact
should be felt in 2010, share price of Truly is outperforming the Chinese mobile
operators with its inexpensive 6.3x 2010E P/E. Believe Truly’s displays can
support an important 3G function in China – generating a wall paper which
makes the user at a karaoke room look like video-calling at his office.