目录

1 全球经济震荡回升....................................................4
1.1 美国经济缓慢复苏............................................................................................................................................4
1.2 美国、日本和欧元区制造业持续向好.............................................................................................................6
1.3 结论...................................................................................................................................................................7
2 中国经济有望率先复苏................................................7
2.1 银行新增贷款超预期........................................................................................................................................7
2.2 制造业稳步回升...............................................................................................................................................9
2.3 出口降幅收窄...................................................................................................................................................9
2.4 中美国债收益率利差分析...............................................................................................................................10
2.5 结论.................................................................................................................................................................11
3 货币市场...........................................................11
3.1 上半年公开市场操作净投放...........................................................................................................................11
3.2 货币供应充裕.................................................................................................................................................12
3.3 09下半年至明年中期通胀压力不大..............................................................................................................12
3.4 通胀预期对中债收益率影响...........................................................................................................................13
3.5 货币市场利率因IPO重启和政策微调而回升.................................................................................................14
4 2009上半年债券市场回顾............................................15
4.1 一级市场.........................................................................................................................................................15
4.1.1 中期票据和地方债引人注目...............................................................................................................15
4.1.2 商业银行占据债券市场投资主力地位...............................................................................................17
4.2 二级市场.........................................................................................................................................................18
4.2.1 央行票据投资价值不明显...................................................................................................................18
4.2.2 固息商业银行债投资并持有获负收益...............................................................................................19
4.2.3 银行间固定利率国债收益率上升.......................................................................................................20
4.2.4 中短期票据投资2年期以下获正收益...............................................................................................20
4.2.5 银行间浮动利率国债获利机会多.......................................................................................................21
4.2.6 企业债信用利差趋于缩小...................................................................................................................22
4.2.7 可转债股性强债性弱...........................................................................................................................22
5 2009年下半年债券市场展望..........................................23
5.1 资金供应—银行间资金充裕局面有望继续保持...........................................................................................23
5.2 市场利率—收益率曲线趋于平坦化...............................................................................................................24
5.2.1短期利率—将延续反弹回升................................................................................................................24
5.2.2中长期利率—上涨幅度有限................................................................................................................25
5.2.3 关键期限债券收益率变动区间...........................................................................................................26
5.2.4浮息债作为避险品种受追捧................................................................................................................28
6 投资策略...........................................................30
6.1 基本判断.........................................................................................................................................................30
6.2 投资策略.........................................................................................................................................................31
7 风险提示...........................................................31