Table of Contents
Executive summary ............................................................................3
Global perspective on emerging market growth ............................7
Introduction................................................................................................................................7
Emerging markets put in global perspective ..............................................................................7
Key drivers of life insurance growth ...........................................................................................9
a. Quantitative drivers.............................................................................................................9
b. Qualitative considerations for regions and countries .......................................................10
c. Operational considerations to entry and growth ..............................................................13
d. Estimating potential market size.......................................................................................15
Most promising growth markets ..............................................................................................19
Growth prospects for South African insurers................................22
Company growth strategies .....................................................................................................22
Potential strategic impact on insurers’ profits ..........................................................................23
Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................26
Valuation and risk ......................................................................................................................27
Appendix A: Company growth strategies ......................................31
Old Mutual ...............................................................................................................................31
Sanlam .....................................................................................................................................33
Liberty ......................................................................................................................................35
Discovery .................................................................................................................................37
Metropolitan .............................................................................................................................38
Appendix B: Survey results..............................................................40
Purpose of the survey...............................................................................................................40
Themes from survey results .....................................................................................................40
Key drivers for assessing growth potential ..............................................................................46
Appendix C: Filter criteria ................................................................48
Discussion of filter criteria ........................................................................................................48
Appendix D: Country specific data .................................................52
Appendix E: Ranking of potential “mushrooms” ..........................55
Appendix F: Forecast growth in premiums (SA insurers).............57
Appendix G: Regional and country overview ................................59
Africa........................................................................................................................................59
Latin America...........................................................................................................................70
The Middle East ........................................................................................................................72
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