Table of Contents
Life worth living................................................................................. 3
Recent sector performance ......................................................3
Investment strategy ..............................................................5
Recommendations...................................................................6
High quality life biased plays.................................................7
Cheaper life biased plays with restructuring angles.........................7
Non-life “biased” plays.................................................................9
Numbers changes............................................................................ 11
Price targets..........................................................................11
Earnings forecasts ....................................................................11
Dividends ......................................................................11
Life insurance outlook..................................................................... 13
Overview......................................................................13
Changes in the macro economy .................................................13
Changes in the business model .................................................13
Changes in disclosure ......................................................................14
Non-life insurance outlook ............................................................. 16
Primary non-life ..................................................................16
Reinsurance .........................................................................17
The role of reinvestment rates ..........................................................18
Capital & Dividends......................................................................... 20
Capital ...........................................................................................20
Dividends ................................................................................21
Solvency & Accounting developments.......................................... 23
Solvency II......................................................................23
IAS 39 / Accounting issues ......................................................24
Appendix – Updated valuation and risk statements .................... 30