Table of Contents
Summary............................................................................................ 3
A period of radical change ........................................................................................................3
Recommendation and target price changes .............................................................................4
Living in the Past ............................................................................... 5
A period of radical change is due..............................................................................................5
Implications for the UK life industry ..........................................................................................7
Consolidation calls ............................................................................ 9
Conclusion – further consolidation appears inevitable ............................................................11
Aviva – Upgrade to Buy...........................................................................................................13
Friends Provident – the first to go?.........................................................................................17
Legal & General – Not an easy target .....................................................................................20
Prudential – Asian growth and re-rating potential ...................................................................23
Standard Life – more likely buyer than target..........................................................................25
Appendix A....................................................................................... 29
2008 New Business by Company...........................................................................................29
Appendix B....................................................................................... 30
% of New Business by Product Area, 2000-2008...................................................................30
Valuation and Risks......................................................................... 32
Aviva ......................................................................................................................................32
Friends Provident ....................................................................................................................32
Legal & General ......................................................................................................................33
Prudential ...............................................................................................................................33
Standard Life...........................................................................................................................33