Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
1. 1H09 performance of Polish banks was strong .............................................3
2. Macroeconomic picture more favourable than anticipated............................3
3. After panic and recovery, we expect differentiation .....................................3
4. 2009 and most likely early 2010 to be transition, and not the full recovery years......3
Valuation ............................................................................................ 4
Gordon Growth model ..............................................................................4
PKO Bank Polski................................................................................. 7
Proven profitability through the cycle .................................................7
Bank Pekao....................................................................................... 10
Risks are diminishing, but we see the stock as overpriced .......................10
Bank Zachodni WBK........................................................................ 13
“Cost-cutting” our way out of it?..............................................................13
BRE Bank .......................................................................................... 16
Liquidity and capital stretched; we see only a limited earnings rebound.............16
Bank Millennium.............................................................................. 19
Valuation went too far north given the underlying risks ..............19
Bank Handlowy................................................................................ 22
Fair valuation of NPL risks and balance sheet resilience....................22
ING Bank Slaski ............................................................................... 25
Being countercyclical sometimes pays off..........................................25
Kredyt Bank...................................................................................... 28
Restructuring story ............................................................................28
Getin Holding................................................................................... 31
Poor underlying profitability driven by NIM squeeze and risk costs..............31
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