Table of Contents
Investment case........................................................................3
Shareprice drivers, catalysts and risks ..................................................6
Economic recovery => plunging provisions, but not in
consensus estimates ...............................................................9
Case study 1: Czech banks...........................................................9
Case study 2: OTP .................................................................10
Case study 3: Sberbank................................................................11
Provisioning post 2008-09 crisis.................................................13
Where the consensus might be off the mark... ...............................15
Loan loss reserves normalization for other banks............................16
Macro update: unmistakable signs of turnaround ..............18
Destocking cycle to lift output .............................................18
Financial sector shock subsides ................................................20
Russian consumer down, but not out ...........................................23
Another GDP revision adds upside to ’10 growth ......................26
Sberbank .................................................................................27
Sberbank: estimates change summary ........................................28
VTB ..........................................................................................35
VTB: estimates change summary ..........................................36
Bank St. Petersburg ...............................................................43
Bank St. Petersburg: estimates change summary....................44
Bank Vozrozhdenie ................................................................51
Bank Vozrozhdenie: estimates change summary.......................52
Bank of Moscow.....................................................................59
Bank of Moscow: estimates change summary .........................60
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................67
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