Upgrading sector view to Attractive: Resumption of
capital flows has reduced stress on asset quality.
Moreover, core revenue momentum should pick up
strongly in F2H2010. Given valuations, we believe that
SOE banks are the best way to play this theme and are
likely to outperform their private sector peers. We
continue to like wholesale funded institutions (IDFC &
HDFC) as well.
Near term, news flow may be adverse; we would buy
into any weakness: Bond yields are moving up and
there are expectations of tightening. SOE banks are now
relatively immune from MTM losses, unless yields spike
up more than 200 bps. Moreover, the 5 year trend of
contracting spread on bond portfolios is behind us –
implying rising yields will cause NIM’s to move up. We
expect stocks to do materially well in F2H2010.
Core profitability trends are strong and likely to get
stronger: In the F1Q2010 results, SOE banks’ core
ROE averaged mid-teens (higher than even HDFC Bank
and Axis Bank). This was despite sharp contraction in
NIM’s. We expect NIM’s to improve from 3Q onwards –
this, coupled with strong fees, should cause profitability
to keep improving. We expect reported ROE to average
16% for SOE banks this year – deserves re-rating.
Inexpensive valuations provide margin of safety
against risks: SOE banks trade at an average 3.5x
F2011e PPOP and 1.1x F2010e BV. Hence, a lot of the
key risks in the form of asset quality deterioration and
potential extreme policy response to the drought seem
to already be reflected in stock prices. Any pickup in
profitability could cause stocks to re-rate materially.
SBI, BOI, BOB, OBC, Union and PNB are our top
picks in the SOE segment. We upgrade PNB, BoB and
Union to OW today.