Table of contents
THE INVESTMENT CASES 2
SUMMARY AND VALUATION 5
WHO IS STRESS TESTING THE STRESS TESTERS? 7
EASTERN EUROPE – SPIRALING DEVALUATIONS UNLIKELY 10
SHIPPING SECTOR – RECENT BULK SURGE SHOULD GIVE SUPPORT TO DNB NOR AND
NORDEA 14
SCENARIOS APPLIED THROUGHOUT THE REPORT 16
PACKAGES AND EQUITY ISSUES HAVE RESTORED CONFIDENCE 17
HIGH LOAN LOSS ABSORBATION CAPACITY - CATALYST 1 20
SECTOR CONSOLIDATION - CATALYST 2 21
CONSOLIDATION MAP 22
CONSOLIDATION CASES 23
HOLD YOUR HORSES … STILL RISKY OUT THERE 24
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND STRATEGIC OWNERSHIP IN NORDIC
BANKS 25
VALUATION METODOLOGY 28
DANSKE BANK 30
DNB NOR 36
HANDELSBANKEN 43
NORDEA BANK 49
SEB 56
SWEDBANK 62
APPENDIX 1- IMPACT OF CRISIS ON NORDIC BANKS 68
PHASE ONE – LIQUIDITY SQUEEZE 68
PHASE TWO – SOLIDITY UNDER PRESSURE 69
PHASE THREE – STATE PACKAGES AND EQUITY ISSUES 69
APPENDIX 2- STATE PROGRAMS 70