Table of contents
Summary of stock ratings ........................................... 4
BNP Paribas ..............................................................................4
Société Générale..........................................................................4
Crédit Agricole.......................................................................5
Cost of risk ................................................................ 6
Write-downs on loans ............................................................6
Write-downs on toxic assets..................................................6
BNP Paribas’ cost of risk: focus on Fortis toxics ..................8
Société Générale’s cost of risk: focus on CEE ........................10
CASA’s cost of risk: focus on SME, Greece and toxics.............13
Capital position........................................................ 15
The preferred shares ..................................................15
BNP Paribas capital: weak but risk profile limited ................16
Société Générale capital: adequate ......................17
Crédit Agricole capital: some adjustments ..............18
2009 earnings estimates ........................................ 19
BNP Paribas earnings: Fortis dependent .....................19
Société Générale earnings: it’s all about CEE and CIB............22
CASA earnings: highly dependent on CIB revenues............24
Valuation.......................................................... 27
BNP Paribas valuation...............................................28
Société Générale valuation ..........................................29
Crédit Agricole valuation.............................................30
Strategy ....................................................................... 31
BNP Paribas: Fortis assets acquisition................................31
Société Générale: the sleeping princess .............................33
Crédit Agricole: acquisition risk, as always..........................33